S P E C I A L : S O F T W A R E interview 4 1
Automotive software market expected to grow by +9.2 % p.a.
CAGR
2019-2030
N O . 1 2 0 2 3
31
6
6
32
3 5
focus: What about testing and simulation?
6
9
41
18
Deichmann: That’s a huge driver and
stands for roughly 40 % of the market.
The paradox: the better the car
industry manages – by testing, simulating
and validating in advance to
create good products before they
are integrated into the car – the
smaller the overall market for automotive
software.
focus: Is ADAS/AD still a major
driver? After the big projections
a couple of years ago it seems quieter
now.
Deichmann: Yes, ADAS and AD
together with OTA updates are
a crucial driver, when it comes to
centralization of control units, separation
of hardware and software
etc. Though infotainment and user
experience are more visible to the
customer, they are not that complicated
from a technology point of
view. And there is safety and security,
the “mean brother” of ADAS,
OTA and co., which requires a lot
of attention and innovation. The
most secure vehicle in recent years
was probably the VW Golf 1, because
it had hardly any code inside.
focus: We talk about cars as smartphones
on wheels. But how many
operating systems for cars will
be left at the end of the transformation?
Deichmann: I would distinguish between
three types. With In-Vehicle
Infotainment (IVI) domains,
there is a clear trend to Android
platforms – except in China. Second,
in the field of so-called highperformance
operating systems
where you got a lot of AI, highspeed
combination of sensors, etc.
I think that we will have two or
three dominant operating systems.
And the third type is classical automotive:
control units, powertrain
and much more, where we will have
four or five platforms that partially
already exist today.
focus: What is the relationship between
OEMs, automotive suppliers
and genuine software firms in
this development? Will there be a
“winning model“ that everyone
else tries to copy?
Deichmann: There will not be “one”
model, it will be a variety of models.
A volume car maker whose customer
wants user experience, but is
not very much into ADAS, needs a
completely different strategy than a
premium car maker who claims to
be at the forefront of technology.
�
Total automotive software1 market
USD billions
Total ——————————————— +9.2%
Powertrain & Chassis ———————— +0.8%
Body & Energy ——————————— +9.5%
ADAS & Highly automated driving——— +11.1%
Operating system & Middleware ——— +11.6%
323
427
12
38
26
49
33
1) Software incl. function development, integration and verification/validation
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Infotainment, Connectivity,—————— +8.9%
Security, Connected services
231
2019 25 2030
2019
63
82
2 7
14
5 7
13
25 2030